As a president who often promotes himself as a top negotiator, the upcoming 11 weeks will be crucial as his team strives to accomplish what no previous administration has achieved: establishing numerous individual trade agreements with various nations.
President Trump has vowed to enhance American trade, and representatives from Japan, South Korea, India, and other countries are advocating for agreements to avoid harsh tariffs. However, trade analysts argue that the administration has set daunting expectations, as traditional trade negotiations can take months or even years.
Mr. Trump has attempted to utilize tariffs as bargaining chips to secure rapid agreements, with his trade advisor, Peter Navarro, asserting that there will be “90 deals in 90 days.” Yet, these tariffs have caused turmoil and financial strain for numerous businesses, failing to draw in major trading partners, including China.
Trade with China has significantly slowed as both nations implemented steep tariffs on each other’s goods, and a wave of bankruptcies may be on the horizon, particularly for small U.S. businesses that depend on Chinese imports, if these trade restrictions remain in place.
Some U.S. officials acknowledge that the current situation with China is untenable and are devising strategies to reduce the tariffs, according to two sources familiar with the discussions. Another source indicated that officials are worried about the impact on the stock market, which has faced significant fluctuations and some of its worst trading days in recent history. The S&P 500 has dropped 10 percent since Mr. Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
During a Wednesday Oval Office address, Mr. Trump expressed his desire to strike a deal with China but noted that the outcome of his tariffs on China “depends on them.” He dismissed any worries regarding the tariffs’ effect on small businesses, asserting that the high tariff “essentially means China isn’t doing any business with us.”
He claimed that the United States has communicated with 90 nations, all eager to reach agreements. “Too many to fully deal with, but we’re going to be fair to them,” he stated.
On Tuesday, Mr. Trump indicated that the 145 percent tariff he imposed on Chinese imports might decrease. “It won’t be anywhere near that high,” he remarked. “It’ll come down significantly. But it won’t be zero.”
So far, officials from both the United States and China do not seem to have engaged in meaningful discussions regarding the trade conflict. Trump’s team believes that the Chinese economy is at risk due to its reliance on exports to the United States.
“President Trump has made it clear: China must reach a deal with the United States,” stated Kush Desai, a White House spokesperson.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, on Wednesday, rejected speculation that the president was contemplating unilaterally lowering the tariffs on China prior to negotiations with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader. He stressed that any steps to reduce trade tensions must be reciprocal.
“I doubt either side thinks the current tariff levels are viable,” Mr. Bessent told reporters. “This situation resembles an embargo, and a breakdown in trade between the two nations doesn’t benefit anyone.”
On Wednesday, Guo Jiakun, spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, reaffirmed that China would not be intimidated by U.S. tariff threats.
“If the U.S. genuinely seeks to solve issues through dialogue and negotiation, it should cease its threats and coercion, and engage with China on equal footing, respecting mutual benefits,” he stated. “Requesting an agreement from China while consistently applying maximum pressure is an incorrect approach and will not yield results.”
Mr. Trump’s tariff threats have prompted urgency among other nations, pushing them to initiate discussions with the United States about lifting tariffs and other trade barriers. On April 9, shortly after the president levied stringent tariffs on nearly 60 countries, he deferred them for 90 days, providing nations an opportunity to negotiate trade agreements instead.
This week, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt remarked that the Trump administration had received 18 proposals and that the trade team was “meeting with 34 countries this week alone.”
“There is significant progress happening,” she stated. “We are operating at Trump speed to ensure these deals benefit American workers and citizens.”
When asked if the tariffs have been effective, she replied, “Have some patience and you will see.”
However, negotiating numerous deals simultaneously presents major challenges. Many of Mr. Trump’s departments are still lacking critical staffing, with mid-level officials yet to be confirmed. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, an investment firm, noted that on average, trade agreements signed by the United States take 18 months to negotiate and 45 months to implement.
“While markets await trade negotiations with 90 countries simultaneously,” he wrote, “global trade is slowing down significantly, encountering issues reminiscent of those faced during Covid: increasing supply chain problems with potential shortages in U.S. stores within weeks, rising inflation in the U.S., and diminished tourism to the U.S.”
Another obstacle, according to sources familiar with the negotiations, is that foreign governments are unclear about the specific demands of the Trump administration. Due to Mr. Trump’s unpredictable requests, they are uncertain if his aides have the authority to finalize a deal.
Greta Peisch, a former trade official now with the law firm Wiley Rein, noted that the tight timeline raises doubts about whether any agreements finalized in the coming months would be “more tentative or aspirational” rather than actual trade agreements. She further mentioned that the economic advantages could be minimal.
“When considering some of these trade relationships, merely eliminating trade barriers might not significantly influence trade flows in the short term,” she indicated.
South Korean finance and trade ministers were set to meet with Mr. Bessent and Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, on Thursday. Officials from Thailand, Japan, India, and other nations were also expected to conduct discussions in Washington this week.
On Tuesday, Vice President JD Vance visited New Delhi and outlined a potential trade agreement with India. This deal aims to enhance trade between the two nations, diminish barriers that India has on U.S. exports, and include discussions on defense, energy, and strategic technologies.
The Trump administration has indicated that some agreements could be finalized quickly, but initial discussions have revealed that negotiations might be more complex, especially with key trading partners like Japan.
Long-standing trade disputes between the two countries have existed for decades, particularly regarding sectors like steel and auto parts. Furthermore, some projects being considered, such as one involving Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan investing in a pipeline to ship liquefied natural gas from Alaska, may require at least five years to complete.
According to Daniel Russel, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, “Tokyo aims to maintain its alliance and keep harmony with Trump but will not compromise on Japan’s interests.” He noted that while Japan’s government is open to increasing U.S. investments and importing more American products, it will resist pressures for unbalanced agreements.
South Korean representatives also seem open to discussing trade disparities, as well as purchasing additional natural gas and investing in the U.S. shipbuilding sector. However, the capacity for aggressive negotiations may be limited, as the Korean president is currently impeached, with elections not set until June 3.
In Washington on Wednesday, British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, stated that there is no hurry to establish a trade agreement with the United States.
Reeves, who had planned to meet with Mr. Bessent, expressed her desire to lessen trade barriers between Britain and other nations but emphasized that there are certain boundaries her government will not breach, such as altering food or car safety regulations.
When it comes to larger trade partners like the European Union, negotiations appear to be more challenging. European officials have voiced their frustrations regarding the lack of definitive goals from the Trump administration.
Valdis Dombrovskis, the European commissioner for the economy, expressed at the Semafor World Economy Summit that “more clarity on expectations would be beneficial.” He mentioned that European officials had proposed “firm suggestions,” like increased imports of liquefied natural gas and zero-for-zero tariffs on industrial products, but the U.S. needs to clarify its objectives.
“We are working towards a solution and a way forward,” he stated. “However, we are also prepared to protect our businesses in the absence of a solution.”
EU officials have compiled lists of American goods on which they can impose their own tariffs in retaliation and are looking to diversify their trading partnerships.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, indicated to a German newspaper last week that she is in “countless discussions with leaders from various countries eager to collaborate with us on a new global framework,” including nations such as Iceland, New Zealand, the UAE, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Mexico.
She asserted, “The West as we knew it has changed irreversibly.”
Choe Sang-Hun, Eshe Nelson, and Alan Rappeport contributed reporting. Siyi Zhao contributed research.
