The stock market’s recovery last week highlighted how reliant Wall Street has become on the actions of the White House. For instance, the S & P 500 dropped over 2% last Monday while President Donald Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and shared minimal information about tariff discussions. However, a shift occurred on Tuesday when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that there would be a “de-escalation” in the trade conflict with China. This marked the beginning of a rally for the S & P 500 lasting three sessions. On Wednesday, the market saw gains as Trump decided against firing Powell and eased his rhetoric on China. Despite China claiming there were no ongoing trade negotiations, the market continued to rise on Thursday due to contradicting statements from the White House. By Friday, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq had gained 4.6% and 6.7% for the week, respectively. The Nasdaq’s significant increase allowed it to enter the positive for the month, with just three trading days left in April. Notable tech stock performances included Broadcom’s 12.5% growth and CrowdStrike’s 13% increase. Meanwhile, the broader S & P 500 was still down 1.5% for April as sectors like health care and materials continued to struggle. Over the week, the Dow appreciated by 2.5%, but it still faced a substantial 4.5% decline compared to the month prior.
Earnings from consumer-oriented companies last week reaffirmed what monthly surveys have been suggesting: consumers are anxious about the economy and inflation, leading to more cautious spending. The University of Michigan’s final April consumer sentiment report released on Friday was slightly better than previous figures regarding economic perceptions and inflation, yet still showed a gloomy outlook. Four of our portfolio’s major stocks reported earnings last week. Danaher, which had been underperforming, saw a rebound on Tuesday, gaining nearly 5.5%. Capital One’s report also released on Tuesday highlighted stable credit quality as it prepared to complete its acquisition of Discover Financial next month, leading to a remarkable 12% stock increase, making it our top performer. Other financial stocks in the portfolio, including Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock, also showing solid gains. On Thursday, we reduced our price target on Bristol Myers Squibb due to unresolved issues, resulting in a 2.7% decline for the week. Guidance from Dover, also disclosed on Thursday, was cautiously optimistic and appreciated by the market, with shares rising 5% over the week.
We implemented four trade actions last week. On Monday, we followed Jim Cramer’s earlier advice to reduce our holdings in Apple and Nvidia due to their volatility amid U.S.-China tensions, resulting in gains exceeding 6% and 9% for both stocks, respectively. We also increased our stake in Capital One ahead of its earnings results, believing it deserved a better performance following regulatory approval for its Discover deal. On Tuesday, we bought more shares of BlackRock and Dover before their recent gains. We added to our Starbucks position, which saw some improvement last week but still suffered about a 15% decline in April amid ongoing concerns about China trade discussions. On Thursday, we trimmed our holdings in Linde, which had remained stable through recent market instability.
Looking ahead, the upcoming week’s economic calendar is packed with critical reports related to the Fed’s dual focus on maximum employment and price stability. The upcoming data will impact the central bank’s interest rate decisions and provide insights into the state of the U.S. economy amid trade tensions. In addition to the regular weekly jobless claims release on Thursday, there are three significant labor market reports scheduled.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March, commonly known as JOLTS, will be released on Tuesday morning, offering important insights into job market conditions and possible wage inflation signals. The consensus estimate is currently 7.47 million job openings, according to FactSet. The following morning, ADP will report its estimate for private job growth, predicting an addition of 150,000 jobs in April—significant given the ongoing tariff uncertainty. While ADP’s figures are often seen as an early indicator of the official U.S. jobs report, they are not without potential inaccuracies. The government’s official nonfarm payrolls report for April is expected on Friday, with a similar prediction of 150,000 new jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%, according to FactSet. The influence of tariffs on hiring remains a critical concern, as well as whether efforts to reduce the federal workforce by the Trump administration yield noticeable results.
Inflation data is also set for release on Wednesday, with economists anticipating that the PCE index will show a year-over-year increase of 2.6% in March, along with a monthly rise of 0.1%. Notably, this report pertains to March—before the steep “reciprocal” tariffs were briefly implemented, then paused while a 10% baseline tariff remained in effect. This inflation report will provide valuable insights into price pressures prior to the escalation of tariffs. Inflation has consistently surpassed the Fed’s 2% target, and policymakers are monitoring the potential inflationary effects of these tariffs.
In addition to all of the jobs and inflation data, this week is also packed with earnings reports both within and outside our portfolio. A total of 10 companies in the portfolio are set to report earnings—featuring four prominent tech firms. Other significant market players include Visa on Tuesday, Caterpillar on Wednesday, and Mastercard and McDonald’s on Thursday.
The first Club stock to report is Honeywell on Tuesday morning. As a sensitive industrial company, market participants will be closely watching how the trade disputes impact customer orders. It’s worth noting that Honeywell’s previous 2025 guidance was already on the cautious side. The upcoming split into three individual companies will also be a focal point of discussion. LSEG estimates place revenue at $9.59 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $2.21.
Starbucks will report on Tuesday evening, with attention on whether CEO Brian Niccol’s revitalization efforts are yielding positive results; the coffee chain has struggled with declining same-store sales for the last four quarters. Current projections suggest a slight decline of 0.8%. Weighing down Starbucks’ performance may be less consumer spending due to economic concerns, and its strategy in China amid ongoing tensions will also be significant. LSEG estimates expect revenue of $8.86 billion and EPS of 50 cents.
Lastly, following Wednesday’s market close, all eyes will be on Meta Platforms, particularly its advertising performance—a core component of its business.
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