Reform U.K., the anti-immigration party led by Nigel Farage, achieved a notable, albeit narrow, triumph in a parliamentary special election held in northwest England on Friday. This outcome indicates that Mr. Farage, a well-known populist and an ally of President Trump, is re-emerging as a significant player in British politics.
The candidate for Reform, Sarah Pochin, narrowly defeated Labour’s Karen Shore by just six votes in Runcorn and Helsby, taking a seat that Labour had long considered secure until the previous representative, Mike Amesbury, resigned due to an assault conviction.
In a dramatic night, the result— the closest in modern election history— necessitated a recount, which delayed the announcement for several hours.
With a tally of 12,645 votes for Reform against 12,639 for Labour, this win marks the beginning of what could be a noteworthy performance for Reform in the local and mayoral elections that took place across England on Thursday.
Over 1,600 local council positions are currently contested, and polls indicate that Reform could secure at least 300 of them.
If these expected gains materialize throughout the counting process on Friday, it would signal a significant shift in British politics, possibly moving the nation toward a more divided, multiparty system.
For Prime Minister Keir Starmer, this result would represent a setback, marking his party’s first electoral challenge since Labour regained power in July. The Conservatives, still recovering from their prior electoral defeat, could find themselves even more exposed to threats from Reform. Meanwhile, Mr. Farage could argue that Reform is now a serious contender against the two main political parties.
The defeat in Runcorn is a significant blow for Mr. Starmer, as Labour previously won the seat by a margin of 15,400 votes. However, Mr. Amesbury’s conviction, along with widespread dissatisfaction with the government, created an opportunity for Reform. Ms. Pochin, a local businesswoman with prior experience in local governance, will join Mr. Farage as a member of Parliament alongside four other Reform legislators.
Her narrow victory margin is unprecedented in contemporary British electoral history, surpassing the previous closest margin in 1973, when the Liberal Democrats won by just 57 votes in Berwick-upon-Tweed.
After her victory, Ms. Pochin stated, “The people of Runcorn and Helsby have spoken. Enough is enough. Enough of Tory failures, enough of Labour lies.” Mr. Farage, smiling broadly, told the media, “It’s a huge night for Reform.”
Mr. Starmer expressed his disappointment regarding the outcome: “I understand that we were elected to deliver change. We need to act more decisively and quickly to bring about the changes that people demand, and I am committed to doing that.”
The atmosphere in Runcorn, an industrial town with 61,000 residents located by the River Mersey west of Liverpool, suggested a possible Reform victory. Residents reported that the party capitalized on anti-incumbent sentiment driven by economic dissatisfaction and immigration-related tensions, attracting support from traditionally Labour voters.
In recent years, immigration has become a contentious issue, particularly after a local hotel was repurposed to house refugees, some of whom arrive via small boats across the English Channel.
Although Labour announced plans to close the hotel, Reform maintained its focus on the issue, attempting to take credit for pressuring the government to take action.
Terry Osborne, 49, a business development manager, noted that Reform had capitalized on voters’ ignorance regarding the government’s involvement and leveraged their pre-existing biases concerning immigration. “People hear what they want to hear about immigration,” he observed.
Mohamed Alosta, 36, a local business owner and lifelong Labour supporter, also criticized Reform’s stance on the hotel situation but decided not to vote for Labour this time due to his disillusionment with mainstream politics. He chose to support the Workers Party, a more fringe option led by the controversial figure George Galloway.
In addition to the special election, council members were elected in 24 municipalities across parts of England, and six regional mayors were also contested.
Labour managed to win three of the mayoral races: in North Tyneside and Doncaster, both in northern England, and in the West of England.
Reform finished as a strong second in all three elections, and in Greater Lincolnshire, their candidate Andrea Jenkyns, a former Conservative MP, won 42 percent of the vote.
While much of the local official responsibilities are routine, such as managing waste collection or urban planning, these elections serve as a referendum on the ruling party, which won a slim 34 percent of the vote last year.
Since that time, Labour’s support has been weakened due to unpopular economic measures, including reduced payments to retirees to help with rising fuel costs, increased payroll taxes on businesses, and changes in inheritance tax policies affecting farmers.
“It seems like they’ve made an effort to offend every demographic,” remarked Robert Hayward, a Conservative House of Lords member and polling expert.
Although the next general election is still years away, Mr. Starmer’s position isn’t immediately threatened. However, a poor performance may intensify scrutiny on Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who is responsible for Labour’s stringent fiscal policies.
Labour’s difficulties haven’t translated into gains for the Conservatives, who are anticipating a substantial seat loss since they performed unusually well in the last local council elections, thanks to Boris Johnson’s rapid COVID-19 vaccine rollout.
A particularly disastrous result would raise concerns about the future of Kemi Badenoch, who took on the role of Conservative leader last November. Analysts suggest that it could empower her critics within the party who are interested in forming an alliance with Reform U.K.—a move that she opposes.
Nevertheless, Mr. Hayward and other analysts believe that an overthrow of Ms. Badenoch is unlikely just six months into her leadership.
This leaves Mr. Farage as the clear victor of this election cycle. Reform ran candidates in nearly all local races, signaling a growing presence and maturity within the party, which in the past has often been dismissed by skeptics as merely a one-man operation led by Mr. Farage.
