As Canadians prepare to vote on Monday, there’s growing interest in whether voters from Quebec will prioritize sovereignty in this federal election, especially with increasing pressures from the United States.
Polls by Ipsos for Global News during the campaign indicate that Quebec’s long-standing separatist movement may take a backseat, with a shift towards unity with Canada.
The federal Liberals have seen a significant boost in support within the province since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office in January amid controversy.
In the previous federal election, the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals managed to secure most of Quebec’s 78 seats. However, recent polls indicate a decline in support for the Bloc, with both the Liberals and Conservatives likely to gain additional seats.
Pollster Sebastien Dallaire mentioned to Global News that Trump’s influence is unmistakable across the border, potentially causing traditionally blue districts to lean red.
Some Quebec voters have expressed to Global News that their shift in support isn’t necessarily a strong endorsement of the Liberals but rather a strategic decision due to Trump’s threats concerning tariffs and annexation.
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Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet has adjusted his campaign messaging in the final stretch, indicating that he believes Liberal Leader Mark Carney will likely become the next prime minister, and he is urging voters to provide him with the balance of power should a Liberal minority government emerge.
Latest polling
The most recent Ipsos poll released for Global News on Sunday shows Mark Carney’s Liberal Party leading by four percentage points over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in the lead-up to Monday’s election.
However, despite a tight national race, the Liberals maintain a strong position in critical provinces like Ontario and Quebec, which are likely to influence whether they secure a fourth consecutive term.
The Ipsos data indicates the Liberals have 42 percent support nationally, followed by 38 percent for the Conservatives, 9 percent for the NDP, and 5 percent for the Bloc Québécois.
In Quebec, the Liberals are at 40 percent, the Bloc Québécois at 25 percent, the Conservatives at 24 percent, and the NDP with only 6 percent support.
Bloc-held ridings that could flip
Several Bloc-held ridings like Terrebonne—a suburb north of Montreal that has consistently backed the Bloc since its inception in 1991—are now classified as toss-ups between the Bloc and the Liberals according to poll aggregator 338Canada.
Other traditionally blue ridings around Montreal also appear to be within reach for the Liberals, including the riding of leader Yves-François Blanchet in Beloeil-Chambly.
“These seats could all be at risk because when one flips, others tend to follow,” stated Philippe J. Fournier, the creator of 338Canada.
This would mark a significant change in the electoral landscape.
A province that has witnessed the Bloc challenge the Liberals in the past two elections, managing to secure 32 seats compared to the Liberals’ 35 out of a total of 78.
While Montreal Island predominantly supports the Liberal party, the nearby suburbs and other areas are strongholds for the Bloc.
The Conservatives consistently capture several seats around Quebec City, while the NDP has dwindled down to just one riding in Montreal since 2019.
Polling Hours
On Monday, polls throughout Quebec will be open from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
For electoral districts that cover multiple time zones, such as Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine–Listuguj, polling will take place from 8:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. EDT and 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. ADT.
–with contributions from Alex Boutilier and The Canadian Press
© 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
