In March, the job market remained strong, although job openings decreased and layoffs stayed close to all-time lows, with hiring rates being steady yet slow, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday.
These figures from last month offer a glimpse into the U.S. economy and job market before the global trade fluctuations that were initiated by President Trump’s tariff policies.
“It shows a labor market that ‘could have been’ without the harm from tariffs,” explained Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, which analyzes labor trends. “We have the groundwork for a more stable labor market,” he noted, “but trade policies are influencing that stability.”
Despite the environment of reduced hiring and minimal job losses prior to April, it proved challenging for job seekers, especially in industries like technology and manufacturing. Nevertheless, the overall job market showed clear signs of stability, leading some labor economists to express concerns about stagnation.
Currently, the economy is encountering a completely new range of difficulties.
Since the announcement of import taxes in January by the White House, consumer confidence has dropped significantly, with fears of job losses and rising inflation growing among households and top executives.
The full impact of the tariffs on shipping is yet to be experienced. Experts in global shipping logistics, like Craig Fuller, founder of FreightWaves, anticipate that this will change soon as companies begin facing tariffs that can reach from 10 percent to over 120 percent on numerous Chinese products.
Federal job openings fell by 36,000 in March, attributed to significant reductions in the federal civil service under the Trump administration. In the wider labor market, job openings decreased by 288,000. Several financial analysts are looking at a more extensive slowdown that has been occurring for months prior to the tariffs.
“The key takeaway is that job openings are declining,” said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro. “We are reaching a stage where fewer job openings will lead to higher unemployment.”
The April jobs report is expected to provide a clearer view of the economic landscape. Economists predict that unemployment rates will remain largely the same and moderate job growth should persist. However, analysts are preparing for unexpected changes due to the uncertainties surrounding the tariffs.
For the moment, the employment outlook and consumer spending appear positive — a point highlighted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in his public statements.
Nonetheless, many analysts, including Daniel Altman, chief economist at Instawork, a job search and recruitment platform, are taking a cautious approach.
“I believe the jobs report will provide more insights,” Mr. Altman stated.
