The New Democrat Party is facing what appears to be its worst performance in a federal election on Monday. Jagmeet Singh lost his riding, announced his resignation as leader, and the party may lose its official status in the House of Commons.
According to projections from Global News, the Liberals are set to form a government for the fourth time, marking their third consecutive minority government. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have gained seats compared to the last three elections, pushing the NDP to a distant fourth place.
Singh expressed disappointment that the party did not secure more seats, announcing his intention to step down as leader after an interim replacement is named. “I’m hopeful for our party … We have created the best of Canada, and we’re not going anywhere,” he stated to supporters in Burnaby, B.C.
Insiders within the party view the election results as a significant setback for the left-wing party, which previously held the balance of power for the last Liberal government and was the official Opposition during the Conservative majority in 2012.
“We anticipated a challenging night,” commented former NDP MP Nathan Cullen to Global News.
NDP press secretary Melanie Richer noted her surprise at the narrow leads that some NDP candidates had in certain ridings, as well as the significant losses in others. She emphasized that there was a belief that they could secure the minimum 12 seats needed for official status, which enables the party to participate more fully in parliamentary activities.
Richer also acknowledged that the concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump and the possibility of a Conservative government under Pierre Poilievre made many New Democrats cautious about their voting choices, leaving the NDP out of the main conversation.
“People expressed a desire to vote for the NDP to have representatives fighting for them, but fear influenced their choices,” she remarked.
The party managed to retain ridings in Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Montreal, and Nunavut, but their vote shares were noticeably lower than before.
In many other ridings, especially in Metro Vancouver, Vancouver Island, and Ontario, their support significantly dwindled.
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Many incumbents lost by substantial margins, and notable party figures, including Singh and former House leader Peter Julian, finished in third place in their ridings.
The last time the NDP faced such a low number of seats and votes was in 1993, when former leader Audrey McLaughlin secured nine seats with just under seven percent of the vote. The current projections suggest the NDP will have an even poorer outcome, marking the worst result since the party’s establishment in 1962.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the party is projected to hold only seven seats, a decline from 25 prior to the election campaign, alongside a mere 6.3 percent of the vote share.
This may still allow them to maintain some influence alongside the Liberals, who are expected to form a minority government, falling just four seats short of a majority.
How did the NDP arrive at this point?
Since Jagmeet Singh took over leadership in 2017, the New Democrats have seen their status drop to fourth place in the 2019 federal election. They gained only one additional seat in 2021, a stark contrast to their days of serving as the official Opposition under former leader Jack Layton.
The NDP further tied its fate to Prime Minister Trudeau by signing a supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberal government in 2022, ensuring that their priority legislation would advance in exchange for supporting the minority Liberals until 2025.
While the NDP achieved some legislative successes through this agreement—such as “anti-scab” laws and the initiation of national pharmacare and dental care programs—the Conservatives regularly attacked Singh and his party for their close ties with Trudeau, leading to a decline in NDP approval ratings following the COVID-19 pandemic.
View Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s concession speech after the election.
Carney states that the anticipated Liberal victory marks a ‘critical moment in history.’
Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi mentioned to Global News, “The achievements related to pharmacare, dental care, and childcare during the last government were mainly due to the New Democrats, yet they have struggled to communicate this to voters.”
Poilievre and his team referred to the government as the “NDP-Liberal coalition,” although a coalition differs from a supply-and-confidence agreement. He also claimed that Singh was hesitant to confront the Liberals due to wanting his federal pension, which began this year; Singh has denied this claim.
While campaigning, Singh defended his choice not to instigate an earlier election by voting against the Liberals. Although he previously pledged to propose such a motion at the earliest chance, he also indicated support for the Liberals in passing laws aiding Canadians affected by Trump’s tariffs.
The inauguration of Trump as the U.S. president in January and his increasing criticism of Canada’s economy and sovereignty transformed the Canadian election into a matter of leadership—specifically, who could best negotiate with Trump regarding trade, security, and other concerns.
According to analysts, this issue pushed Singh to the sidelines.
“Unfortunately, voters seem to want someone capable of defeating Donald Trump, and we may not have offered that solution this time,” Richer explained, emphasizing that in a different electoral context, the party, the campaign, and the leader “did nothing wrong.”
“If we disregard the current geopolitical situation, which was significant in this election, Singh and the party appeared to run a commendable campaign.”
The NDP centered its campaign on its traditional priorities: enhancing public healthcare, affordable housing, higher taxation on wealthy individuals and companies, and tackling climate change.
In regard to its strategies against Trump and the U.S., the party did not follow the Liberals or Conservatives in advocating for energy project expansions, and its commitments to safeguard industries like automotive affected by tariffs lacked specificity.
While they pledged to boost Arctic security investments and increase defense spending to achieve NATO’s target of two percent GDP by 2032—the longest deadline among all parties—military spending was not included in the NDP’s detailed platform.
Cullen expressed hope that the NDP could recover in the next election when Trump is not a factor. “Hopefully, we won’t be contending with a president who aims to undermine the country and ruin our economy,” he commented.
