Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan and India are escalating their verbal confrontations and have exchanged gunfire across the Line of Control (LoC), the unofficial border in Kashmir, shortly after the Pahalgam incident that resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22.
In the aftermath, high-ranking officials from both Pakistan’s government and military have held several press conferences stating they possess “credible evidence” that an Indian military action is on the horizon.
This is not the first occasion where these two populous nations—home to over 1.6 billion people, which constitutes roughly one-fifth of the global population—have faced the threat of war.
Central to their long-standing enmity is the beautiful area of Kashmir, over which India and Pakistan have fought three of their four wars. Since their independence from British colonial rule in 1947, both nations have administered portions of Kashmir—while China governs another sector—but both still assert claims to the entire territory.
So, what is the fundamental issue regarding the Kashmir conflict, and why do India and Pakistan continue to clash over it nearly 80 years post-independence?
What are the latest tensions about?
India has suggested that Pakistan may have indirectly aided the Pahalgam attack, an assertion that Pakistan vigorously refutes. Both nations have engaged in reciprocal diplomatic actions, including the revocation of visas for each other’s citizens and the withdrawal of diplomatic staff.
India has halted its involvement in the Indus Waters Treaty, a water-sharing arrangement with Pakistan. In response, Pakistan has threatened to abandon the Simla Agreement, established in July 1972, just months after Pakistan faced a decisive defeat in the 1971 war resulting in Bangladesh’s formation. The Simla Agreement is crucial to India-Pakistan relations as it regulates the LoC and emphasizes conflict resolution through peaceful dialogue.
On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reached out to Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, urging both nations to collaborate in “de-escalating tensions and maintaining peace and security in South Asia.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also contacted Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh on Thursday to condemn the attack. “I offered my strong support. We stand with India and its great people,” Hegseth remarked on X.
What lies at the heart of the Kashmir conflict?
Located in the northwest of the Indian subcontinent, the region covers 222,200 square kilometers (85,800 square miles). Approximately four million people reside in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, while about 13 million live in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir.
The majority of the population is Muslim. Pakistan governs the northern and western parts, specifically Azad Kashmir, Gilgit, and Baltistan, while India controls the southern and southeastern regions, including the Kashmir Valley, its largest city Srinagar, as well as Jammu and Ladakh.
The end of British colonial rule and the partition of British India in August 1947 led to the formation of Pakistan, a Muslim-majority nation, and India, which is predominantly Hindu.
At that time, princely states like Jammu and Kashmir were given the option to join either nation. Given that around 75 percent of its population was Muslim, many in Pakistan anticipated that the region would naturally align with it. However, Pakistan was established under Muhammad Ali Jinnah as a homeland for Muslims, despite the fact that a significant number of Muslims chose to remain in the part of India left after partition, where Mahatma Gandhi and India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, aimed to build a secular state.
The maharaja of Kashmir initially desired independence from both nations but ultimately chose to join India following an invasion by Pakistan, triggering the first Indo-Pakistani war from 1947 to 1948. The ceasefire line created at that time was later formalized as the LoC in the Simla Agreement.
Nevertheless, both nations continue to insist on their claims over the entire territory, with India also asserting claims over Aksai Chin, a region administered by China on the eastern side.
What triggered the first Indo-Pakistan war in 1947?
The Hindu maharaja of Kashmir at the time was Hari Singh, who secured control of the area through an agreement with the British in 1846.
During the partition, Singh initially sought to keep Kashmir independent of both India and Pakistan.
However, a rebellion backed by pro-Pakistani factions against his rule erupted. Armed groups from Pakistan invaded the region, supported by its government, in an attempt to take control.
Sheikh Abdullah, the leading Kashmiri figure, opposed the Pakistani-backed assault. Hari Singh sought military support from India.
Nehru’s administration intervened against Pakistan under the condition that the maharaja sign an Instrument of Accession, thereby integrating Jammu and Kashmir into India. In October 1947, Jammu and Kashmir officially became a part of India, granting New Delhi control over the Kashmir Valley, Jammu, and Ladakh.
India accused Pakistan of being the aggressor in the situation, a claim that Pakistan denied, and took the issue to the United Nations in January 1948. A significant resolution was passed asserting that the “accession of Jammu and Kashmir to India or Pakistan should be determined via a free and impartial plebiscite.” Nearly 80 years have passed, and the plebiscite has yet to materialize—a source of ongoing dissatisfaction for Kashmiris.
The initial conflict over Kashmir concluded with a UN-mediated ceasefire, and in 1949, both nations formalized a ceasefire line through an agreement signed in Karachi, then the capital of Pakistan. This newly established line differentiated between Indian- and Pakistani-controlled regions in Kashmir.
How did the situation change after the 1949 agreement?
By 1953, Sheikh Abdullah had founded the Jammu Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and secured election victories in Indian-administered Kashmir.
However, his increasing desire to seek independence from India led to his arrest by Indian authorities. By 1956, Jammu and Kashmir was officially declared an “integral” part of India.
In September 1965, less than two decades post-independence, India and Pakistan engaged in another war over the area.
Pakistan aimed to support the Kashmiri cause and instigate an uprising, but the war ended in a stalemate, with both sides agreeing to a UN-supervised ceasefire.
How did China get a part of Kashmir?
The Aksai Chin area, located in the northeast, is situated at an altitude of 5,000 meters (16,400 feet) and has historically been a remote, sparsely populated region that in the 19th and early 20th centuries sat at…
The border between British India and China.
This region was part of the territory inherited by Hari Singh of Kashmir due to a deal made with the British in 1846. Up until at least the 1930s, Chinese maps also indicated that Kashmir was situated south of the Ardagh-Johnson Line, which defined the northeastern boundary of Kashmir.
After 1947, when Singh joined India, New Delhi began to consider Aksai Chin as part of its territory. However, in the early 1950s, China, now under a communist regime, constructed a substantial 1,200km (745-mile) highway linking Tibet to Xinjiang, passing through Aksai Chin.
India was taken by surprise, as this remote area had not been a security concern until then. In 1954, Nehru proposed formalizing the border based on the Ardagh-Johnson Line, effectively acknowledging Aksai Chin as Indian territory.
Nonetheless, China claimed that the British had never officially recognized the Ardagh-Johnson Line and argued that Aksai Chin was theirs according to another map. Crucially, China already had deployed military presence in Aksai Chin due to the construction of the highway.
At the same time, tensions arose between Pakistan and China regarding territorial control in certain parts of Kashmir. However, by the early 1960s, they reached an agreement: China relinquished grazing land that Pakistan had sought in exchange for a small portion of northern Kashmir.
India maintains that this arrangement was illegitimate, as per the 1947 Instrument of Accession stating that all of Kashmir belonged to India.
What happened next between India and Pakistan?
In December 1971, another war ensued over what was then called East Pakistan, spurred by a popular uprising supported by India. This conflict ultimately resulted in the formation of Bangladesh. India took over 90,000 Pakistani soldiers as prisoners during this conflict.
The Simla Agreement established a ceasefire line that was renamed the Line of Control (LoC), which remains a de facto but not internationally acknowledged border, further complicating the situation regarding Kashmir’s status.
Following India’s substantial victory and the growing political clout of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, Nehru’s daughter, the 1970s saw Abdullah abandon calls for a plebiscite and the right of self-determination for the Kashmiri people.
In 1975, he signed an agreement with Gandhi acknowledging India’s authority over Kashmir while preserving a degree of autonomy under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. He subsequently became the region’s chief minister.
What triggered the renewed push for Kashmiri independence in the 1980s?
As the alliance between Abdullah’s National Conference Party and India’s Indian National Congress strengthened, frustration among Kashmiris grew. Many felt that the socioeconomic conditions in Indian-controlled Kashmir had not improved.
Separatist groups, such as the Jammu-Kashmir Liberation Front established by Maqbool Bhat, emerged during this time.
India’s claims of a democratic environment in Kashmir were challenged as support for armed groups increased. A pivotal moment came during the 1987 state legislative elections, where Abdullah’s son, Farooq Abdullah, assumed power, but many believed the elections were manipulated to prevent popular anti-India candidates from winning.
The Indian government initiated a harsh crackdown on separatist groups, which were allegedly backed and trained by Pakistan’s military intelligence. Pakistan continuously asserts that it only provides moral and diplomatic backing for Kashmiris’ right to self-determination.
In 1999, conflict reignited in Kargil when Indian and Pakistani forces battled for control over strategic heights along the LoC. India ultimately regained the territory it lost, returning to the status quo prior to the conflict. This marked the third war over Kashmir, with Kargil now part of Ladakh.
How have tensions over Kashmir intensified since then?
Following this, there was a gradual decrease in open conflict, with several ceasefires established. However, India notably increased its military presence in the valley.
Tensions flared again in 2016 with the death of Burhan Wani, a notable separatist leader. This incident sparked increased violence in the valley and more frequent skirmishes along the LoC.
Major attacks in Indian-controlled Kashmir, like those at Pathankot and Uri in 2016, targeted Indian forces, which accused Pakistan-backed armed groups of responsibility.
The most significant escalation occurred in February 2019 when a convoy of Indian paramilitary personnel was attacked in Pulwama, killing 40 soldiers and bringing both nations to the edge of war.
Six months later, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian government unilaterally revoked Article 370, eliminating Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status. Pakistan condemned this as a breach of the Simla Agreement.
This decision triggered widespread protests in the valley. India responded by deploying between 500,000 to 800,000 troops, enforcing a lockdown, shutting down internet access, and detaining thousands.
India claims that Pakistan is responsible for the continuing crisis in Kashmir, accusing it of hosting, funding, and training armed groups that have conducted numerous attacks in Kashmir over the years. Some of these groups are also accused of perpetrating attacks elsewhere in India, such as the 2008 assault in Mumbai that left 166 people dead over three days.
On the other hand, Pakistan denies inciting violence in Indian-controlled Kashmir and points to widespread local discontent, accusing India of enforcing oppressive and undemocratic governance. Islamabad maintains that its support for Kashmir’s separatism is solely diplomatic and moral.
